With all the other preludes having taken effect, there is only one major award show left to take to the stand (the Super Bowl of award shows): The Oscars. The show takes place this year on February 22nd (so only a week away), live at the Kodak Theater in Hollywood and being hosted by Neil Patrick Harris. History seems to reveal that my annual predictions are in order. To be quite honest, this is going to be one of the tougher years to predict (in theory). With a Best Picture race coming down to two solid films and the acting race as tight as ever, it’s going to be as they say, “down to the wire.” Last year, I accurately predicted 20 out of 24 categories (Best Live Action Short is not one of my stronger predictions, as you’re basically looking at a sheet and picking the one which sounds most appealing to you).

Best Picture – Boyhood (IFC Films)

Out of all the nominees, this one makes the most sense, literally and metaphorically. It has won every major award up to this point, including the BAFTA for Best Picture and Director just last week. It also snagged the Critics Choice Award and took home the top honor just last month at the Golden Globes. To me, this was the best film of 2014. Being shot over the course of twelve years is something never done in the history of cinema. Richard Linklater’s coming-of-age masterpiece teaches us all a thing or two about life. That doesn’t mean it cannot win, as Birdman is slowly gaining some traction (taking home the Screen Actors Guild for Best Ensemble Cast and Directors Guild for Alejandro González Iñárritu). Still, the Academy may be turned off by the structure of Boyhood’s narrative, but the light-hearted warmth underneath it all is well worth seeing success.

Will Win: Boyhood

Could Win: Birdman

Should Win: Boyhood

Best Director – Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

For the last couple years now, the winning director’s film has not won Best Picture (see last year, when Alfonso Cuaron won for Gravity and Ang Lee for Life Of Pi). That should change this year. While I can see Alejandro González Iñárritu taking this award home as well for his work on Birdman, I’m giving the slight edge to Linklater for establishing himself early on. The time commitments and effortless attention to detail just seem to pop out. Birdman is an excellent film, and if it does happen to pull the upset, I would be thrilled.

Will Win: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Could Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)

Should Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)

Best Actor – Michael Keaton – (Birdman)

This is easily one of the toughest races ever for Best Actor. Many folks were surprised when favorite, David Oyelowo, was omitted as a nominee for Best Actor (and was snubbed harshly) in favor of Steve Carell or Bradley Cooper. I digress–It really comes down to two in this spot, and that’s Michael Keaton for Birdman and Eddie Redmayne for Theory of Everything. For a while, I had Redmayne pegged to win for his performance of Stephen Hawking, which is stirring and moving, but now I just keep thinking Keaton is a dynamo. I think it’s his time to finally win. Redmayne will have time to garner more nominations. Keaton is entrancing to watch on screen–eclipsing any of his previous performances ever, never do we ask for it. Keaton just delivers.

Will Win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Could Win: Eddie Redmayne (Theory of Everything)

Should Win: David Oyelowo (Selma) – not nominated  

Best Actress – Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

This is a category that (as opposed to that of the men) is fairly weak. There have not been many strong female roles this year. I don’t know if this is from a lack of good scripts or what, but Hollywood needs to figure it out. Last year, there were so many well-qualified actresses eying the top prize, and now it kind of seems as though it’s by default. The clear winner will be Moore for playing a patient with onset Alzheimer’s in Still Alice. But don’t be surprised if Reese Witherspoon comes from the shadow to win her second Best Actress award.

Will Win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Could Win: Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Should Win: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Best Supporting Actress – Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

I’m not even going to merit a description because there is no competition. No worries–Arquette will absolutely 100% win Best Supporting Actress…by a mile. There hasn’t been a Supporting Actress award this season she hasn’t won, and it’s not going to stop now.

Will Win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Could Win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Best Supporting Actor – JK Simmons (Whiplash)

This is another no-brainer. If you’re betting money and need to have a safe bet, it’s Simmons. The revelation in the Sundance Darling Whiplash shows Simmons at his finest. Also winning every major Supporting Actor award in the circuit, it’s pretty clear cut that he’s going to win.

Will Win: JK Simmons (Whiplash)

Could Win: JK Simmons (Whiplash)

That’s it for my detailed description into my method of the top awards of the night, but really it’s all up to chance–voters have a way of surprising people. So don’t be too shocked if my picks aren’t chosen (although I do feel fairly confident). Look for Interstellar to dominate the visual effects and sound department and How To Train Your Dragon 2 for Best Animated Feature (LEGO Movie was snubbed). We will see who takes home gold on Oscar Sunday!

 

You can download a printable ballot at ABC.com!

Full Oscar Predictions Below

 

Best Picture

American Sniper Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan, Producers

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers

Boyhood Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers

The Grand Budapest Hotel Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers

The Imitation Game Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers

Selma Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers

The Theory of Everything Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers

Whiplash Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers

 

Actor

Steve Carell in Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper in American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

 

Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall in The Judge

Ethan Hawke in Boyhood

Edward Norton in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

 

Actress

Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore in Still Alice

Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon in Wild

 

Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Laura Dern in Wild

Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game

Emma Stone in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Meryl Streep in Into the Woods

 

Animated Feature

Big Hero 6 Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli

The Boxtrolls Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight

How to Train Your Dragon 2 Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold

Song of the Sea Tomm Moore and Paul Young

The Tale of the Princess Kaguya Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura

 

Adapted Screenplay

American Sniper Written by Jason Hall

The Imitation Game Written by Graham Moore

Inherent Vice Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson

The Theory of Everything Screenplay by Anthony McCarten

Whiplash Written by Damien Chazelle

 

Original Screenplay

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo

Boyhood Written by Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher Written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman

The Grand Budapest Hotel Screenplay by Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness

Nightcrawler Written by Dan Gilroy

 

Cinematography

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) Emmanuel Lubezki

The Grand Budapest Hotel Robert Yeoman

Ida Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski

Mr. Turner Dick Pope

Unbroken Roger Deakins

 

 

Costume Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel Milena Canonero

Inherent Vice Mark Bridges

Into the Woods Colleen Atwood

Maleficent Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive

Mr. Turner Jacqueline Durran

 

 

Director

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) Alejandro G. Iñárritu

Boyhood Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher Bennett Miller

The Grand Budapest Hotel Wes Anderson

The Imitation Game Morten Tyldum

 

Documentary Feature

Citizenfour Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky

Finding Vivian Maier John Maloof and Charlie Siskel

Last Days in Vietnam Rory Kennedy and Keven McAlester

The Salt of the Earth Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado and David Rosier

Virunga Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara

 

Documentary Short Subject

Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry

Joanna Aneta Kopacz

Our Curse Tomasz Sliwinski and Maciej Slesicki

The Reaper (La Parka) Gabriel Serra Arguello

White Earth J. Christian Jensen

 

Film Editing

American Sniper Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach

Boyhood Sandra Adair

The Grand Budapest Hotel Barney Pilling

The Imitation Game William Goldenberg

Whiplash Tom Cross

 

Foreign Language Film

Ida Poland

Leviathan Russia

Tangerines Estonia

Timbuktu Mauritania

Wild Tales Argentina

 

Makeup and Hairstyling

Foxcatcher Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard

The Grand Budapest Hotel Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier

Guardians of the Galaxy Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White

 

Original Score

The Grand Budapest Hotel Alexandre Desplat

The Imitation Game Alexandre Desplat

Interstellar Hans Zimmer

Mr. Turner Gary Yershon

The Theory of Everything Jóhann Jóhannsson

 

Original Song

“Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie

Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson

“Glory” from Selma

Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn

“Grateful” from Beyond the Lights

Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me

Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond

“Lost Stars” from Begin Again

Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois

 

Production Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock

The Imitation Game Production Design: Maria Djurkovic; Set Decoration: Tatiana Macdonald

Interstellar Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis

Into the Woods Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock

Mr. Turner Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Charlotte Watts

 

Animated Short Film

The Bigger Picture Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees

The Dam Keeper Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi

Feast Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed

Me and My Moulton Torill Kove

A Single Life Joris Oprins

 

Live Action Short Film

Aya Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis

Boogaloo and Graham Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney

Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak) Hu Wei and Julien Féret

Parvaneh Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger

The Phone Call Mat Kirkby and James Lucas

 

Sound Editing

American Sniper Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies Brent Burge and Jason Canovas

Interstellar Richard King

Unbroken Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro

 

Sound Mixing

American Sniper John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga

Interstellar Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten

Unbroken Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee

Whiplash Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley

 

Visual Effects

Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist

Guardians of the Galaxy Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould

Interstellar Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher

X-Men: Days of Future Past Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer